Basics of Prediction (RSE)

Prediction, one of the main attributes that seperates the good players, from the not so good players. This guide will hopefully allow less experienced, and maybe rather experienced players to utilize prediction to a better degree. Now, as the more experienced players will know, prediction mainly applies in battles against other trainers, rather than fighting "in-game". If you're playing Pokémon on your Gameboy, the game can't really predict which move you're going to make next can it? This is why facing a real opponent is much harder than facing the main storyline or the infamous "Pokémon League". Less experienced players would feel that beating the Pokémon League requires a lot of skill, when in reality it requires very little. If you expected a Ground-type attack from an "in-game" trainer, you can easily switch to a Flying-type to avoid any damage, but if you were facing a real opponent, they could decide that you "may" switch to a Flying-type and use a Rock/Electric/Ice-type attack (or anything else that could be super effective) to cause more damage. This is basic prediction and should be common knowledge to any player, but I'd assume that some players don't even think to switch, or predict switches, and thus, I'm going to try and adapt your knowledge to predict as much as I can. I hope you enjoy reading.

Basic Prediction and Type Knowledge

This is basically common sense, once you've discovered which types resist others, and which types are super effective on others, you'll be able to utilize prediction to a much better effect. When resisting an attack, type is usually the first thing you should combat said attack with. If your opponent was about to use an Ice-type attack, you should instantly think of switching in a Steel/Fire/Water or of course your own Ice-type to minimize damage taken. This is only step one, however. Stats, Abilities (traits) & Risk are all important factors when switching in. You should also try your best to learn the most common movesets for each Pokémon, as this will make outpredicting your opponent far easier. I'll show some examples of Prediction in a battle now:

Team 1: Salamence, Magneton, Gengar, Snorlax, Cloyster & Charizard
Team 2: Heracross, Swampert, Skarmory, Metagross, Blissey & Dusclops

Neither player knows the others team during this battle.

Team 1 opens with Salamence, which is great thanks to Intimidate. Heracross' attack is lowered.

Begin Turn #1
Kinneas withdrew Heracross!
Kinneas sent out Swampert (Lv.100 Swampert)!
---------------------------------
Salamence used Hidden Power!
(28% damage)
---------------------------------
Swampert's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #1
Havak's Salamence: 365 HP
Kinneas's Swampert: 78% HP

Kinneas is a good player, so he knows that Heracross definately stands no chance. He doesn't know if Salamence has a Choice Band or Dragon Dance at the moment, but he does know that Salamence would never Dragon Dance on the first turn anyway. He knows that Skarmory would resist the more than likely Hidden Power [Flying], as would Metagross, but even without resistance, Swampert puts up the best fight against Salamence, and he doesn't know if the Salamence would decide to use Earthquake or Flamethrower/Fire Blast as a surprise move to damage a Steel-type switch in. So he makes the safer choice at first to bring in a known carrier of Ice Beam, with a high HP and Defence stat to resist Salamence's attack. He can then come to the conclusion that Salamence is not holding a Choice Band, by calculating how much damage was taken from Hidden Power [Flying], since it seems rather minimal, he now knows that Salamence will most likely have Dragon Dance. Kinneas can't be sure of which Item Salamence is holding, but since it isn't Choice Band, it's more than likely to be Leftovers, or the occasional Lum Berry.

Begin Turn #2
Havak withdrew Salamence!
Havak sent out Cloyster (Lv.100 Cloyster)!
---------------------------------
Swampert used Earthquake!
(71 damage)
---------------------------------
Cloyster's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
Swampert's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #2
Havak's Cloyster: 207 HP
Kinneas's Swampert: 84% HP

Havak expects Ice Beam as Earthqauke on Salamence seems like a silly idea at first. But Kinneas doesn't know what type of Pokémon will be resisting Ice Beam on the switch, so he opts to use Earthquake instead, as it could be a Steel or Fire-type, and it's likely to do more damage than Ice Beam would anyway. This is a form of Prediction as well, thinking moves ahead of your opponent rather than making the most obvious move. Overprediction can sometimes cost you a game though, as your opponent may not decide to switch at all, thus outpredicting you again.

Begin Turn #3
Kinneas withdrew Swampert!
Kinneas sent out Metagross (Lv.100 Metagross)!
---------------------------------
Cloyster used Spikes!
Kinneas's team had Spikes scattered around it!
---------------------------------
Cloyster's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #3
Havak's Cloyster: 223 HP
Kinneas's Metagross: 100% HP

Kinneas realises that he doesn't have an immediate counter to Cloyster, but decides to switch Metagross in. Havak needs to switch out pretty bad now, but there isn't much on his team that can resist a Metagross Meteor Mash, especially if it's Choice Banded. Thus he has to make the decision whether to waste his late game sweep in Charizard (which has the potential to destroy all of Kinneas' team) or switch in Magneton on the expected Meteor Mash, in hope of Metagross being a Choice Band user.

Begin Turn #4
Havak withdrew Cloyster!
Havak sent out Magneton (Lv.100 Magneton)!
---------------------------------
Metagross used Meteor Mash!
Metagross's attack missed!
---------------------------------
End of turn #4
Havak's Magneton: 259 HP
Kinneas's Metagross: 100% HP

Havak gets slightly lucky with a Meteor Mash miss, but still doesn't know what situation he is dealing with. Metagross could have many different attacks, but the most obvious movesets are the Agilitygross & Choicegross movesets. The best move to try would be Substitute, as Metagross would have to Meteor Mash again if it was holding a Choice Band.

Begin Turn #5
Magneton used Substitute!
Magneton made a Substitute!
---------------------------------
Metagross used Earthquake!
The Substitute took damage for Magneton!
Magneton's Substitute faded!
It's super effective!
---------------------------------
Magneton's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #5
Havak's Magneton: 211 HP
Kinneas's Metagross: 100% HP

Havak now knows that Metagross is not Choice Banded, but he can't risk using Charizard yet, as Swampert is still at high enough HP to cause problems. He now has to decide whether to sacrifice Magneton or not, or whether or not Metagross will now decide to Meteor Mash expecting a switch. Havak decides that Metagross is slightly more likely to try Meteor Mash again, but he doesn't want to Substitute in the slight chance that Earthquake will be used again. A Thunderbolt should take down Metagross' HP quite a lot, and hitting 2 Thunderbolts will allow a switch in of Salamence, which will again attract Swampert, which needs to be weakened.

Begin Turn #6
Magneton used Thunderbolt!
(100% damage)
A critical hit!
Metagross fainted!
Kinneas sent out Blissey (Lv.100 Blissey)!
Blissey is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Magneton's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
Blissey's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #6
Havak's Magneton: 227 HP
Kinneas's Blissey: 94% HP

Havak again gets lucky with a Critical Hit on Metagross, that takes out one threat to the team and puts the match greatly in Havak's favour. Blissey stops Magneton dead, and now Havak has to worry about his team being Paralysed. He doesn't know whether Blissey will use Ice Beam, Seismic Toss or Thunder Wave. But since he now has the option, he decides that keeping Magneton alive could prove to be very useful, as it carries Hidden Power [Grass] to take out the problem Pokémon of the battle, Swampert. So he takes the safest switch in, a slow, high HP, Ice resisting Physical Pokémon, Snorlax.

Begin Turn #7
Havak withdrew Magneton!
Havak sent out Snorlax (Lv.100 Snorlax)!
---------------------------------
Blissey used Thunder Wave!
Snorlax is paralyzed! It may be unable to move!
---------------------------------
Blissey's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #7
Havak's Snorlax: 501 HP (Par)
Kinneas's Blissey: 100% HP

Snorlax is now paralysed, but that isn't a major problem at the moment. Kinneas now has to decide what to switch in. Havak will most likely Body Slam (or Return) so Skarmory seems like a good choice at first, but when thinking about the other factors, which are that Snorlax could carry a surprise Fire Blast, and that Havak still has his Magneton thanks to the Critical Hit earlier it seems safer to switch in Dusclops.

Begin Turn #8
Kinneas withdrew Blissey!
Kinneas sent out Dusclops (Lv.100 Dusclops)!
Dusclops is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Snorlax used Body Slam!
It doesn't affect Dusclops...
---------------------------------
Dusclops's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #8
Havak's Snorlax: 501 HP (Par)
Kinneas's Dusclops: 93% HP

Kinneas made the right choice, now he has a free turn to do some damage to Havaks team. Kinneas now has a big move to make, and must think of many different scenario's now that he knows quite a few of Havaks Pokémon, of which there are many:

Kinneas could try Will-O-Wisp, it wouldn't touch Snorlax thanks to the paralysis. Salamence would be crippled if Havak switches that in to Will-O-Wisp, Magneton wouldn't be effected too much by Will-O-Wisp, but it's better than nothing. Cloyster wouldn't be hurt by Will-O-Wisp, and can Rest it off anyway, Gengar's Focus Punch would be useless if it switched into Will-O-Wisp and Charizard is always a safe switch in, but shouldn't be shown until Swampert is either out of the way, or at low HP. Everything has a draw back though.

Focus Punch would really hurt Cloyster, Magneton & Snorlax which could try Earthquake, but risks being Paralysed and Kinneas could expect Fire Blast or Shadow Ball as well. If Kinneas chose Shadow Ball, he'd really hurt Gengar, and do better damage than Focus Punch to Salamence & Charizard if it switched in.

The other side of the story, is that Kinneas could do a straight switch, expecting Shadow Ball or Earthquake, which wouldn't really hurt his Heracross at all. This would allow him a free turn to try and do some serious damage to anything Havak switches in, so Kinneas decides that Heracross is the safest option, as it can seriously damage all of Havaks team with Focus Punch or Rock Slide.

Begin Turn #9
Kinneas withdrew Dusclops!
Kinneas sent out Heracross (Lv.100 Heracross)!
Heracross is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Snorlax is paralyzed! It can't move!
---------------------------------
End of turn #9
Havak's Snorlax: 501 HP (Par)
Kinneas's Heracross: 88% HP

Snorlax didn't even get the chance to attack, which was a risk in itself. Havak now has one slight advantage and knows that Heracross is actually Choice Banded, but still, Havak knows that a wrong prediction will most likely mean that one of his Pokémon will faint. Havak thinks that Focus Punch is more likely, as it hits Super Effective on 3 of the 4 Pokémon Kinneas has seen, where as Rock Slide would only hit Super Effective on 2, thus making Focus Punch the slightly safer option. Havak can now either risk Salamence again to keep Gengar hidden, or show it expecting Focus Punch. Havak thinks that Salamence is the safer option, as Hypnosis Gengar could miss on Swampert, and doing damage to it is more important at the moment.

Begin Turn #10
Havak withdrew Snorlax!
Havak sent out Salamence (Lv.100 Salamence)!
Salamence's Intimidate cuts Heracross's Attack!
---------------------------------
Heracross used Rock Slide!
(191 damage)
It's super effective!
---------------------------------
Salamence's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #10
Havak's Salamence: 196 HP
Kinneas's Heracross: 88% HP

Havak played the move wrong, but thanks to Intimidate he's still at a decent ammount of HP. Now he expects Swampert, and he thinks he can get the right move in now. He has the option of switching to Cloyster right away, in order to lay down more Spikes, or hitting Swampert with Hidden Power [Flying] in of doing enough damage.

Begin Turn #11
Kinneas withdrew Heracross!
Kinneas sent out Swampert (Lv.100 Swampert)!
Swampert is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Salamence used Hidden Power!
(31% damage)
---------------------------------
Salamence's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
Swampert's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #11
Havak's Salamence: 218 HP
Kinneas's Swampert: 47% HP

Begin Turn #12
Havak withdrew Salamence!
Havak sent out Cloyster (Lv.100 Cloyster)!
---------------------------------
Swampert used Ice Beam!
(31 damage)
It's not very effective...
---------------------------------
Cloyster's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
Swampert's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #12
Havak's Cloyster: 208 HP
Kinneas's Swampert: 53% HP

Havak chose to send in Cloyster, he can lay more Spikes as he doesn't expect Kinneas to have a spinner. Kinneas could expect Explosion, so wouldn't switch to Blissey right away. He'd then want to hit Focus Punch on Cloyster with Dusclops, but Will-O-Wisp could be the safer option. This could be the time for Havak to sweep.

Begin Turn #13
Kinneas withdrew Swampert!
Kinneas sent out Dusclops (Lv.100 Dusclops)!
Dusclops is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Cloyster used Spikes!
Kinneas's team had Spikes scattered around it!
---------------------------------
Cloyster's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
Dusclops's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #13
Havak's Cloyster: 224 HP
Kinneas's Dusclops: 87% HP

In came the expected Dusclops, now Havak may be able to set up his sweep with Charizard. Focus Punch or Will-O-Wisp are the obvious choices from Kinneas now, which means Charizard can easily switch in, and Belly Drum.

Begin Turn #14
Dusclops is tightening its focus!
Havak withdrew Cloyster!
Havak sent out Charizard (Lv.100 Charizard)!
---------------------------------
Dusclops used Focus Punch!
(57 damage)
It's not very effective...
---------------------------------
Dusclops's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #14
Havak's Charizard: 239 HP
Kinneas's Dusclops: 93% HP

The switch in was safe and successful, now Kinneas is in a bad situation, this is a way of Long-term thinking from Havak. Making sure everything was at low enough HP for Charizard to take them all down. Havak can now set up his sweep.

Begin Turn #15
Kinneas withdrew Dusclops!
Kinneas sent out Heracross (Lv.100 Heracross)!
Heracross is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Charizard used Substitute!
Charizard made a Substitute!
---------------------------------
End of turn #15
Havak's Charizard: 165 HP
Kinneas's Heracross: 69% HP

Charizard got the sub in, and can now Belly Drum safely.

Begin Turn #16
Charizard used Belly Drum!
Charizard cut its own HP and maximied Attack!
---------------------------------
Heracross used Rock Slide!
Heracross's attack missed!
---------------------------------
Using Salac Berry, the Speed of Charizard rose!
End of turn #16
Havak's Charizard: 17 HP
Kinneas's Heracross: 69% HP

Kinneas took the risk of Rock Sliding with Heracross to break the sub, but it wasn't successful. Now Charizard is at max attack, +1 Speed and is ready to destroy Kinneas' team.

Begin Turn #17
Charizard used Hidden Power!
(69% damage)
It's super effective!
Heracross fainted!
Kinneas sent out Dusclops (Lv.100 Dusclops)!
Dusclops is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Dusclops's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #17
Havak's Charizard: 17 HP
Kinneas's Dusclops: 80% HP

Begin Turn #18
Charizard used Hidden Power!
(80% damage)
Dusclops fainted!
Kinneas sent out Skarmory (Lv.100 Skarmory)!
---------------------------------
End of turn #18
Havak's Charizard: 17 HP
Kinneas's Skarmory: 100% HP

Kinneas has one last chance in hope of winning, hoping that since he never showed Skarmory, he can Roar away Charizard if it doesn't pack Fire Blast (which could miss) or if it only has moves like Hidden Power [Flying] or Earthquake.

Begin Turn #19
Charizard used Fire Blast!
(100% damage)
It's super effective!
Skarmory fainted!
Kinneas sent out Swampert (Lv.100 Swampert)!
Swampert is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Swampert's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #19
Havak's Charizard: 17 HP
Kinneas's Swampert: 41% HP

Begin Turn #20
Charizard used Hidden Power!
(41% damage)
Swampert fainted!
Kinneas sent out Blissey (Lv.100 Blissey)!
Blissey is hurt by Spikes!
---------------------------------
Blissey's Leftovers restored its HP a little!
End of turn #20
Havak's Charizard: 17 HP
Kinneas's Blissey: 87% HP

Begin Turn #21
Charizard used Hidden Power!
(87% damage)
Blissey fainted!

End Battle! Havak wins!
Score: 6 to 0
Kinneas: gg
Havak: gg

As you can see, prediction is one of the most important, if not most important, factors of competitive battling.

So just to recap:

• Memorise the standard movesets and stat numbers of each Pokémon
• Study the best counters for each Pokémon
• Memorise the resistances and weaknesses of each Pokémon
• Memorise Abilities
• Always calculate risks / damage
• Always think twice, or occasionally more than twice
• When in battle, make sure you can remember which of your opponents Pokémon you've seen. Try to remember how much damage they've taken and hopefully how many more times you need to hit them for a sure KO. Counting PP is also a good idea too.
• And last but not least, try to keep your opponent guessing, without playing the game too radically. If you keep making the same move over and over, IE switching Blissey into every Special Attack, your opponent is going to realise this and counter you somehow.

Page written by Havak.

Digg this! | del.icio.us | Reddit | Stumble Upon | Facebook

Tags: None!